Tin market edged up slightly during the night session and then stabilized, likely to regain a firm footing above the 290,000 mark during the day [SMM Tin Morning News].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 19, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher during the night session and then stabilized, closing at 291,890 yuan/mt, up 0.68% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to US media reports, informed sources revealed that as Trump met with the Saudi Crown Prince, the US plans to approve the first batch of advanced AI chip sales to Saudi Arabian AI company Humain, marking a victory for the state-backed enterprise. They stated that these approvals are expected to be part of a broader AI agreement between Washington and Riyadh. The agreement could be finalized as early as this week, under which the US government will take a positive stance on Saudi Arabia's high-volume AI chip export applications. Since 2023, Saudi Arabia has required Washington's permission for such chip purchases. Trump said on Tuesday local time: "We are working to resolve this issue. The deal will involve a certain number of chips." One informed source said the approved quantity is expected to reach tens of thousands of semiconductors. The US government's authorization will also mark a victory for some of the world's largest semiconductor companies, including Nvidia and AMD, which are seeking to supply the Middle East market. (2) Eviden, a subsidiary of French IT group Atos, said on Tuesday that it, together with US chipmaker AMD (AMD.O), won a contract to build a new supercomputer in Europe to help the region narrow the technological gap with the US. Named after French computer scientist Alice Recoque, the computer will be installed in France, and construction is expected to commence before the end of 2026. According to Eviden, this will be Europe's second exascale supercomputer, after Germany's Jupiter, with a total cost estimated at 554 million euros (approximately $642.5 million) over five years. (3) US Fed—①Trump hinted that the Fed Chairman candidate has been decided, complaining that obstacles prevented him from firing Powell. ②Barkin: Agreed with Powell's view that a December interest rate cut is not a done deal, with risks to both inflation and employment.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major producing areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Overall spot transactions were relatively mediocre. As prices continued to decline, a small number of downstream and end-user enterprises made some just-in-time procurement. Most traders traded 10-20 mt yesterday, while a few traders traded more than one truckload.

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